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| Is District 26 turning blue? |
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Posted: Monday, January 25, 2010 9:00 am
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By CLARE KENNEDY
Special to the County News
OWATONNA - Former state Sen. Dick Day views Tuesday’s special election to find his replacement as a test for the Republican Party and an election where the stakes are high.
What began in 2004 as a slight foothold for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota Legislative District 26 could turn into a blue lockout in 2010 with another DFL victory.
Before he resigned in December 2009, Day represented Steele and Waseca counties for almost two decades. When he was elected in 1991, the region was a red stronghold, but by 2009, Day was the only Republican representing his district in St. Paul. Now, the race is one to fill his seat and three candidates have come forward: DFLer Jason Engbrecht, Independence Party candidate Roy Srp and Republican Mike Parry. Depending on the outcome, the political landscape of District 26 could change completely.
For many years, the Republican and his party cohorts enjoyed ample electoral success in the region. In the 2000 election for example, Day trounced DFL challenger Fred Knudsen, who garnered just 36.8 percent of the vote to Day’s 63 percent. That year, Republicans scored easy victories in the Minnesota House of Representatives as well. In her first foray into state politics, Republican Connie Ruth beat out DFLer Pete Connor, 53.5 to 46.5 percent.
After the census in 2000, Day’s new district was redrawn, but the victories kept coming. In 2002, Day easily defeated Faribault DFLer Jeremy Eller. Meanwhile, Ruth boxed out DFL candidate Lynn Kidder with nearly 70 percent of the vote in 26A. In 26B, fellow Republican, four-term representative Lynda Boudreau kept her seat, winning a decent margin over the DFL’s Patti Fritz.
The tide began to turn in the mid-2000s. In 2004, Ruth easily retained her seat, but Fritz came back for a rematch and unseated Boudreau by a 2 percentage-point margin.
Then, in 2006, things began to shift again, not just in District 26, but throughout the nation as voters turned against the Republican Party. Day felt it in his own district — and his own race — as well. Although he retained his seat in the Minnesota Senate, his margin of victory was much less. In a rematch of the 2002 District 26 Senate race, Day took 55 percent of the vote to Eller’s 45 percent.
“It went from east coast to west coast: Get these Republicans out of there!” Day said. “I went down five or six points in my own district and across the whole state it went that way. It was just this wave.”
The Republican Party lost six state senators that year, Day said.
On a national level, Minnesota Democrats soon made headway in the region as well. In 2006 Democratic Congressman Tim Walz defeated Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht.
In 2008, the Democrats gained even more ground in District 26 after Ruth announced she was retiring from politics. That November, Ruth’s Republican heir apparent lost to the DFL candidate. Owatonna High School teacher Kory Kath routed Republican Tom Kuntz with a 57 percent to 43 percent victory.
That year, Democrats running for re-election solidified their positions. Fritz was elected to her third term by a comfortable margin and Walz won a lopsided victory against his Republican competitor, Dr. Brian Davis.
Kath’s sweep left Day in a strange spot. For the first time since the 2002 redistricting, he was the lone Republican from District 26.
At present, there are 20 Republicans and 46 DFLers in the Senate.
“It has kind of made me nervous,” said Day, who is now a lobbyist for Racino Now. “The Democrats have just been beating us pretty good.”
Day’s Republican colleagues are less concerned.
“I’m not even going to contemplate (losing the seat to a Democrat),” said Tony Sutton, the chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota. “It’s been a Republican seat for years and it’s our intention to continue that.”
Is District 26 turning blue? And if so, the big question is why?
In Day’s opinion, the shift is a trickle-down effect from widespread disillusionment with the national party during the Bush years.
“They used to say politics is local. Let me tell you from a guy that used to always win by 62 to 67 percent, when the Democrats ran really good it was all anti-Bush,” Day said.
Sutton agreed.
“It’s not that the country suddenly became liberal and voted for Barack Obama. The U.S. is still a center-right country,” Sutton said. “But the voters lost confidence in Republicans. Here we are the party of fiscal conservatism and we were spending like crazy. We’re the party of traditional values and yet (Republican Senator) Larry Craig made the Minneapolis airport famous.”
In 2007 Craig was arrested at the airport for allegedly signaling his desire for sex to a man in the next restroom stall.
As might be expected, the Democrats had a different take on it. Fritz was not sure what might be behind it, but she thought it was not about changing party allegiances or broad national politics. Instead, she said the voters were responding to the individual candidates.
“We started picking up good candidates that people can relate to, whose issues are education, healthcare and jobs. That’s what people are concerned about and that’s the DFL’s bedrock,” Fritz said.
Kath agreed and said voters in District 26 tend to be issue-oriented, rather than adhering strictly to party lines.
“I would have to say my district is not guided by party. Community members are concerned about issues — and that’s evident in fact that there have been seven forums during this special election,” Kath said. “That genuinely guides their voting practices.”
Professor Joseph Kunkel III said they’re both right. Kunkel chairs the Political Science Department at Minnesota State University, Mankato. The GOP has become increasingly polarized, he said, which pushes voters out of the fold and weakens the party’s broader base of support.
“The Republican Party has become more conservative in this state and the nation, which means the older, more moderate type of Republican is being replaced in party apparatus by more explicitly socially conservative people. They are now more uniformly anti-abortion, Christian conservatives,” Kunkel said. “Those who are fiscally conservative but socially moderate are contributing to number of self-declared independents.”
Instead of staying loyal to one party, those people become swing voters. Often it only takes one win for another party to gain ground, which then creates what he called a “snowball effect.”
“Mankato used to be represented by Republicans. Then a Democrat caught a seat energized the party and they caught another,” Kunkel said. “Then the party on the out has a hard time recruiting people to run. For many people (a seat in the state Legislature) will be a pay cut and it’s not a job where you’ll get respect and appreciation so much anymore.”
Kunkel said in races such as this it will ultimately come down to the quality of the candidates. Whatever the case may be, the GOP is hoping for a Republican rally.
“We’re going to try to hold the seat and do whatever we can to win this thing. This time around will be a true test because there are no coattails people can ride on,” Day said. “I’m thinking (the shift toward the DFL is) changing. I might be wrong but I think this pendulum is going to swing back.”
Sutton believes it is already happening. He referenced the recent Republican Scott Brown’s victory in the special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts.
For their part, both DFLers said they will work with whoever gets elected — a stance that comes out of logistical necessity as well as Minnesota Nice. Republican or Democrat, all the politicians from Greater Minnesota struggle to push forward initiatives for their constituents because more than half the state’s population lives in the Twin Cities.
“I have bills ready to go and I expect to get them through. Whoever wins will have to work with me to accomplish that,” Fritz said. “We have to have strong voices and hard workers in Greater Minnesota because we’re outnumbered.”
The special election to replace Sen. Day will take place on Tuesday.
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